EXCLUSIVE: Why BJP may get an absolute majority in Elections 2019

2014 Election results were quite interesting apart from the massive Modi wave which swept across the nation. A closer look would show how the BJP performed exceedingly well in a bunch of states (which we will call Strong Zone) and surprisingly performed very poorly in another bunch of states (which we will term as Weak Zone).

BJP Weak Zone. * ballpark estimated seats in 2019
BJP Strong Zone. * ballpark estimated seats in 2019

As we can notice in both the zones as listed alongside, the difference cannot be any more stark. Considering there would be voter fatigue and anti-incumbency due to job loss & agrarian distress; BJP in all probabilities would not be able to repeat its mind-boggling 2014 performance in the Strong Zone where it scored an astonishing winning strike rate of 80%. However, it would also not do that badly owing to the steady ratings of PM Modi, scattered Opposition and all inclusive populist manifesto. It is bound to lose seats compared to its 2014 tally from Strong Zone states like Gujarat, Delhi, Himachal, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh where it scored a near 100% win; five years back.

In the Weak Zone, it won a paltry 9 out of 188 seats with a winning strike rate of only 4.8%. BJP have not missed this crucial detail in the run-up to the elections which can be noticed with the intensity it has stitched together winnable alliances in crucial states like Bihar and Tamil Nadu and have tacit understanding with regional parties like TRS and YSRCP in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh respectively; both which were part of their weak zone.

BJP President Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi intensified their campaigns in other crucial weak zone states like Kerala, West Bengal and Odisha; where they have smelt blood and are going all guns blazing for the last mile connect with the voters. In all these crucial weak zone states, BJP definitely cannot do as bad as they did in 2014 and their numbers are expected to go up sharply considering the pan-India nationalist surge; owing to the tough stand taken by the ruling government and a listless opposition unable to set a winning narrative.

A worst-case ballpark estimation on the strong zone states would bring the tally from 273 seats in 2014 to 210 seats in 2019 and likewise weak zone states most likely would increase from 9 seats in 2014 to at least 63 seats.

If these estimations hold true, NDA with BJP as its prime constituent will be all set to form the next government comfortably with BJP themselves getting an absolute majority of 273 seats with 272 being the half-way mark. Come 23rd of May we will know for sure which way the wind is blowing.

One thought on “EXCLUSIVE: Why BJP may get an absolute majority in Elections 2019

  1. I agree that BJP might get an absolute majority but it will be with lot less vote share than ever. I for one will rather vote NOTA.


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